The Population Illusion 2.0

Why Nigeria’s Real Market Is 30 Million People — And That’s Not a Problem

The question has resurfaced with force: is Nigeria’s population 130 million or 200 million?

From the recent exchange between technologist Mark Essien and investor Ewgi to ongoing debates around NIN enrolment and SIM activations, the underlying question is structural: what if the foundational numbers behind Nigeria’s economic narrative were never verified — and that fiction has consequences?

This isn’t just demography. It’s the denominator behind investment theses, fiscal models, and startup valuations.

1. The myth that built an industry

In 2021, I published The Population Myth, arguing that Nigeria’s supposed 200-million population had become the most expensive illusion in African venture capital.

I argued that venture funds and policy actors were allocating capital as if 200 million digitally reachable consumers existed — despite income, infrastructure, and connectivity data showing otherwise.

The core thesis remains intact. We’re now closer to quantifying the gap.

2. Why the number matters

Population isn’t trivia — it’s the denominator for GDP per capita, fiscal transfers, revenue forecasts, and investor assumptions.

An inflated baseline distorts everything built on top: CAC models, total addressable market calculations, and public budgets.

The real crisis isn’t a “shrinking” Nigeria — it’s an unmeasured one.

3. The data reality

Nigeria: Reconciling Population Proxies (2025)

Working estimate: ≈ 110 – 135 million identifiable Nigerians (not 200 million +)

Methodology:

The NIN adjustment reflects NIMC’s transition to mandatory biometric enrolment in 2015. Pre-2015 registrations were paper-based and vulnerable to duplication. Applying deduplication rates observed in comparable biometric ID rollouts (India’s Aadhaar ≈ 15–20%; Kenya’s Huduma Namba ≈ 18%), a conservative 20–26% reduction yields 90–100 million verified identities.

GSM data, corrected for NCC’s reported multi-SIM behaviour (1.8 SIMs per user), implies 120–130 million unique mobile subscribers.

BVN captures economically active adults. Applying Nigeria’s adult share (≈ 55% of population, per NBS), the BVN base of 55–60 million suggests an adult population of 100–110 million — consistent with the adjusted NIN range.

Cross-referencing these datasets produces a defensible working estimate: 110–135 million identifiable Nigerians — not 200 million +.

That doesn’t signal population decline; it signals data correction.

4. From headcount to wallet-count

For business, what matters isn’t how many people exist — it’s how many can pay, connect, and transact.

I propose a framework: Effective Economic TAM (EETAM)

EETAM = population × disposable income × connectivity × digital payment readiness

Applying this lens conservatively — intersecting broadband penetration (≈ 50 m), BVN coverage (≈ 60 m), and household income thresholds above the World Bank’s lower-middle-income line ($5.50/day) — Nigeria’s digitally transactable base likely sits between 25–35 million people.

That is the real market for most tech-enabled services.

5. The capital distortion

Between 2015 and 2022, billions in venture and donor funding flowed into Nigerian startups on the premise of a 200-million-person market. That assumption shaped pitch decks, due diligence memos, and government partnerships — all built on unverified headcount.

The result:

• consumer fintechs chasing low-yield users,

• logistics firms priced for phantom density,

• and e-commerce models that subsidized unsustainable demand.

The few who built for verified enterprise demand — trade-finance platforms, B2B logistics, payment rails serving formal SMEs — survived.

They priced for the real economy, not the imagined one.

6. Why this correction is healthy

A smaller verified base makes the system stronger:

• Investors can price risk more precisely.

• Founders can model CAC and LTV around verified spenders.

• Government can calibrate fiscal allocation to reality.

Precision in national statistics is not pessimism.

It is governance.

7. The deeper shift

Emerging evidence suggests fertility may be declining faster than official projections indicate — particularly in urban centres where household costs are rising and access to contraception is expanding.

If sustained, this implies Nigeria’s “demographic dividend” window is narrowing.

The national opportunity now lies not in more people, but in more productive people.

8. Strategic conclusion

Nigeria doesn’t have 200 million consumers.

It has roughly 30 million reachable, income-active, connected people — and that number defines the real frontier.

The myth of size distorted a decade of capital allocation.

This correction is overdue. It replaces fantasy scale with measurable opportunity.

For founders: stop building for the imagined majority. Build for the transacting minority.

For investors: price for precision, not scale.

For policymakers: verified populations enable targeted interventions.

Measurement replaces mythology.

Strategy replaces storytelling.